In one new paper published on Wednesday
in the journal Nature, Dutch scientists
predict that, by 2070, our lifespan may
increase to 125 years while beyond that,
the sky may be the limit.
To prove a 125-year lifespan is possible,
researchers from the Netherlands
Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute
team began their study by refuting the
relationship between age and immortality
posed by Benjamin Gompertz.
This 19th-century mathematician pored
over mortality data and noticed that young
people have a very low chance of dying.
Yet,
in middle age, the chance of dying
increases and then rises again dramatically
in old age.
This exponential increase in the rate of
human mortality has long been accepted
wisdom, yet the Dutch researchers decided
to challenge it.
Instead of basing their work
on data derived from the general
population, they used data from a group of
people noted for their long lives Japanese
women.
Using mathematical models, they
claim mortality goes down in old age and
projected an astounding new human
lifespan 125 years will be achieved by
2070.
In their paper, Vijg explained that their
analysis was based not on some
mathematical model that projected future
data, but on "actual data" of real human
lives.
They examined not one but two
different data sets, and what they observed
was that, despite life expectancy being
dramatically higher than it was 100 years
ago, the probability of anyone living for
more than 125 years was unlikely. "Initially,
you see this increase every year and you
see this oldest record holder until the
1990s, and then it stops," said Vijg.
"Think
about it, how strange it is." The number of
healthy centenarians increased dramatically
every year.
That being the case, Vijg
theorized "the supply is certainly there" to
create more record-breakers, every year,
yet there were none.
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